← Match stats

Match rates

Your estimated chance of matching, from NRMP's own probability curves, plus what matched and unmatched applicants looked like. From NRMP's Charting Outcomes (2024).

Add your Step 2 or rank list to mark where you land on the curves. Rank list = how many programs you'll rank in this specialty (the strongest signal in the data).

54%

of Non-U.S. IMGs who ranked Internal Medicine first matched it (NRMP 2024). Add your Step 2 or rank list above to see where you land on NRMP's own curves.

Chance by USMLE Step 2
0%25%50%75%100%200220240260overall 54%USMLE Step 2 CK score

Enter your Step 2 above to mark where you land.

Chance by rank-list length
0%25%50%75%100%151015overall 54%Programs ranked in this specialty (contiguous ranks)

Enter your rank list above to mark where you land.

The dashed line on each curve is that overall rate. These are NRMP's own curves, fit on 2022–2024 applicants. An estimate from history, never a promise for you.

The full averages

What matched and unmatched applicants reported to NRMP. Higher isn't always better: the groups trade places on research and degrees, which is why we don't turn those into odds.

Measure Matched n=2535 Didn't match n=2136
Rank-list length
Programs ranked in this specialty in a row. The clearest lever in the data: longer lists match more
 6.1 2.5
Specialties ranked
1.0 means they applied to this specialty only
 1.2 1.3
USMLE Step 2 CK
The score programs screen on
 248 242
Research experiences
 2.6 2.7
Abstracts, presentations & publications
 7.0 5.8
Work experiences
 3.8 4.3
Volunteer experiences
 2.7 2.7
Have a PhD
 1.1% 1.5%
Have another graduate degree
 16.6% 17.7%
USMLE Step 1
Legacy: pass/fail since 2022, so these are partial
 237 230
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How to read these numbers

  • The curves are NRMP's own logistic models on 2022–2024 applicants, one for your score and one for your rank list. We show each on its own axis and never combine them into a single number (that would need data NRMP doesn't publish).
  • "Matched" means matched to the preferred specialty shown. Many who didn't still matched another specialty, or in SOAP.
  • Step 2 CK and COMLEX Level 2-CE are the scores programs screen on. Step 1 and COMLEX Level 1 are pass/fail now, so their averages here are old and partial.
  • Most numbers are self-reported, and small-sample rows are only a handful of people. An estimate from history, never a prediction of your odds.

Source: NRMP Charting Outcomes in the Match, 2024 (Non-U.S. IMG edition).